Back in 2018, it took just eight words to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was falling out of love with its then leader. While not precisely soaring oratory, the words met with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.
During that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.
The Evolution of Stance & Closed Issues
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if EU relations may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.
Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.
Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas
Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing youths can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.
David Lammy muses openly regarding the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.
Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism
However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water again cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he views as signature achievements of his government.
It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- First, he believes a customs pact has been made significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards.
- Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms with Britain than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.
An Alarming Document and Strategic Calculations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the rise of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from deciding that this makes the US an undependable ally, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter & The Echo of 2018
All of which returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an effort to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Obvious Danger and A Prudent Reminder
The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.
It would be wise for Starmer to remember the effect just a few words had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.
